Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
