A mere two months prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or a cause for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When the England international swept in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough proposition to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games has the team posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with rivals before hoping their talisman to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the hero positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
